What's driving the pound's price movement against the dollar this year

GBPUSD - News & Technical Analysis

GBPUSD - News & Technical Analysis


  •  Monetary Policy Outlook for the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England

  •  GBPUSD - Levels to Watch

GBPUSD - News

For the Pound, this week markets are awaiting the release of December CPI data, which is expected to reveal that core inflation fell year-on-year from 3.5% in November to 3.4% in December, while headline inflation rose year-on-year from 2.6% to 2.7%, complicating the Bank of England's task of cutting interest rates more than once during the first quarter of the year. In the medium term, rising UK bond yields are one of the factors that may push the government to cut spending in order to balance the state budget during the Labour years. In light of the decline in government spending and low levels of inflation coming from the services sector, this may prompt members of the Bank of England Monetary Committee to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts during the current year, which could reach four cuts of 25 basis points by the end of 2025. 

The greenback rallied this week on the back of a better-than-expected US jobs report for December. It is worth noting that the dollar has already benefited from Trump's rise to power, which brings with it an inflationary policy, whether in terms of tax cuts, combating illegal immigration or imposing tariffs, which may push inflation levels higher and increase doubts that the Fed will make more than one rate cut this year. This week, investors are awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which is expected to reveal that year-on-year headline inflation rose from 2.7% in November to 2.9% in December, with core inflation holding steady at 3.3%.

GBP/USD - Daily Chart

GBP/USD - Daily Chart

Chart source: ADSS

At the beginning of the year, the pound resumed its decline against the US dollar, hitting its lowest levels in more than two years yesterday, but the pair's prices moved higher on profit-taking by some traders. For now, prices may be testing the upper boundary of the current trading zone between 1.2383 - 1.2000. A daily close above this level and a break of the downtrend line from the December 6 high 
would signal a possible rally towards 1.2866 with a bounce at 1.2616.

GBPUSD

On the other hand, a daily close below the lower boundary of the aforementioned trading zone is a sign of strong bearish momentum with the possibility of a continued decline towards 1.1873.