Gold prices: What do markets expect from the Fed meeting?

Gold Prices - News & Technical Analysis

 Gold Prices - News & Technical Analysis

  •     What investors are waiting for from the U.S. Open Market Committee

  •     The most important technical levels to watch on gold's daily chart

The US interest rate decision will be released today by the Open Market Committee, where committee members are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.5% after three cuts in the past year totaling 100 basis points. Committee members will have to take into account President Trump's upcoming policy as it is likely to push US inflation levels higher and includes the possibility of tax cuts, deporting illegal immigrants and imposing tariffs on foreign imports into the US. Currently, there is talk of starting with an across-the-board tariff of 2.5% and gradually raising it at a later date, but no final decision has been made on the final percentage of tariffs that the Trump administration intends to start imposing.

Gold prices


Investors will be watching Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference for more clarity on the extent of President Trump's influence on U.S. monetary policymakers. Fed members are likely to hold off on lowering interest rates as there is no urgency from the labor market for a rate cut in light of the December jobs report and inflation has yet to fall to its 2% target. Some members of the Fed believe that current interest rates are not far from neutral levels and believe that these levels have risen to around 4%. As for President Trump, he disagrees with the Fed's stance and believes that interest rates should continue to be lowered.

Gold Prices - Daily Chart



Chart source: ADSS Platform

Gold prices hit a multi-week high of $2785 per ounce on January 24 and then retreated as some traders took profits. Currently, the precious metal is trading in a narrow range between 2724-2791 and could be on its way to test the lower end of the range.

Gold prices hit a multi-week

A close below the lower boundary of this area is a sign that the uptrend momentum is waning and could encourage some traders to push prices towards 2583. In this scenario, support levels at the 50-day SMA and the uptrend line from the November 14 low should be considered. On the other hand, a close above the upper boundary of the aforementioned trading range is a sign of strong upside momentum that could lead some traders to push prices towards the $2,900 per ounce level.